Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Handle: RePEc:ida:wpaper:WP2612
Number: WP2612
Creation-Date: 2026-06-16
Length: 30 pages
File-URL: https://repec.ideagov.eu/RePEc/ida/wpaper/WP2612.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2026

Title: Who's in Charge? Understanding Rallying and Accountability in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: This study explores how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the rally and accountability effects on incumbent parties at both the national and regional levels. We argue that these effects depend on who is responsible for health policy in each country. Using a measure of static party nationalization, we analyze 988 lower house elections across 105 countries from 1960 to 2020, and predict nationalization scores for elections held after March 11, 2020. Our analysis of 35 elections in 30 countries during the pandemic reveals that the impact was more national than regional, driven by the number of casualties rather than the stringency of containment measures. The rally effect was observed only in unitary states, where the national government had full responsibility for managing the pandemic. In federal and confederal countries, where regional governments are also responsible for public health policies, no clear impact on nationalization scores was observed.

Classification-JEL: H70, H77

Keywords: Accountability, COVID-19 pandemic, decentralization, elections, rally

Author-Name: Ignacio Lago
Author-Name-First: Ignacio
Author-Name-Last: Lago

Author-Name: Santiago Lago-Peñas
Author-Name-First: Santiago
Author-Name-Last: Lago-Peñas