Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Handle: RePEc:ida:wpaper:WP2614
Number: WP2614
Creation-Date: 2026-07-08
Length: 27 pages
File-URL: https://repec.ideagov.eu/RePEc/ida/wpaper/WP2614.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2026

Title: The Impact of Population Ageing on Public Finances in the EU-27

Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of demographic ageing on age-related public expenditure in the EU-27 over the period 1992-2024. The analysis covers healthcare, long-term care (LTC), and pensions. The results reveal three patterns. First, demographic effects are heterogeneous across countries, driven by short-run responses that vary by spending category—limited in healthcare, absent in LTC. Second, advanced ageing (80+) tends to be more important for long-run dynamics, especially in healthcare. Third, Central and Eastern European economies show weaker or delayed responses, while Western and Nordic countries exhibit stronger adjustments, more evident in healthcare and LTC than in pensions, reflecting the decisive role of institutional design.

Classification-JEL: E60, E62, H20, H51, H55, J11, J14

Keywords: Ageing, public expenditure, demographic change, European Union

Author-Name: María Cadaval-Sampedro
Author-Name-First: María
Author-Name-Last: Cadaval-Sampedro

Author-Name: Santiago Lago-Peñas
Author-Name-First: Santiago
Author-Name-Last: Lago-Peñas

Author-Name: Xoaquín Fernández-Leiceaga
Author-Name-First: Xoaquín
Author-Name-Last: Fernández-Leiceaga

Author-Name: Alejandro Domínguez-Lamela
Author-Name-First: Alejandro
Author-Name-Last: Domínguez-Lamela